3 December 2025

Hi folks,

As per Sherlock Holmes, sometimes it’s the things that don’t happen which defy our expectations. With a couple of us OOO this week, this newsletter is a compilation of things that didn’t happen, or haven’t happened yet - in spite of what many first thought. 

Scroll down to read about the non-events of the Online Safety Act, abortion law reform, and female presidents. 

Stats to power your week

👩 Many anticipated that abortion would be a dominant issue in last year’s US Presidential election, but this wasn’t the case. And even as campaign groups predicted “abortion rights will only grow in salience” after the vote, concern over reproductive rights has hardly changed in the last year. GWI USA

💳The pandemic is a goldmine of predicted events that never showed up. One of our favorites is that even with a big shift to contactless payments, people’s preferences for paying with cash never changed. 40% preferred notes and coins in 2020, and it’s the exact same figure today. GWI Core

♪  The recent US TikTok sale might be big news for executives, but less so for users. 16% of US TikTokers say the sale will make them use TikTok more, while 15% think it’ll reduce or stop their usage. In other words, everything in balance. GWI Zeitgeist

👧 It feels logical that if girls see a woman enter a high-flying job, it gives them more belief in their own abilities (hence the books). But our research in Mexico suggests otherwise. Even after the country elected its first female president, the share of girls believing they can do any job hasn’t meaningfully shifted yet. GWI Kids

📵Are influencers over? It’s tempting to think we’re in the middle of a deinfluencing movement, but the influencer market is pretty strong - especially among older age groups. Since 2020, the share of Americans aged 45 who prefer influencer accounts has more than doubled. GWI USA

Chart of the week

VPNs topping the app charts. Google searches for “VPN” at record highs (peaking at 1AM…for some reason). If you were to bet on anything being a nailed-on trend, then it’d be scores of Brits booting up VPNs after the implementation of online age verification laws.

But it’s just not coming through in our research. And this doesn’t actually come as a surprise - US states that implemented similar laws likewise see little uptake in VPN adoption.

You have to be careful reading too much into searches and downloads - they’re useful for detecting initial signs of curiosity, but consistent survey data uncovers how people’s habits are actually changing. And the early signs are that the UK is yet to become a nation of VPN users. 

🔥 Hot take

Punchy perspectives, with data that nudges the narrative

“Shrinkflation is good actually”

Hear us out. It’s hardly popular on social media, but what if, sometimes, less is more? What if portion tweaks are really an opportunity for a fresh narrative? As Don Draper said, if you don’t like what’s being said, change the conversation. 

49% would rather brands keep prices the same and reduce pack quantities than raise costs. Shrinkflation is bad, but regular inflation might be worse. At the same time, portion sizes have become part of the cultural conversation, especially in a post-weight loss jab world, with “bite-sized” options giving consumers balance without sacrifice.

So rather than apologizing for smaller packs, it might be worth thinking about how to reposition them.

More from GWI

• Get an early scoop on 2026’s biggest trends with our Connecting the Dots report
• Dive into the biggest trends shaping the future of online grocery shopping
• Listen to our convo around segmentation slip-ups and ways to avoid them